Adam Jonas, CFA – Morgan Stanley
Ferrari 2Q results were modestly higher vs. consensus while increasing confidence in unchanged outlook. While consensus may not move on the print, we’d use any weakness in the stock to increase exposure to the name. Reiterate OW.
- Key 2Q Numbers Revenue of €1,787mn missed vs. cons of €1,809mn and MSe of €1,794mn.
- ASPs of €431k missed vs. cons of €438k and MSe of €440k.
- Shipments were modestly lower vs. cons, driven by weaker EMEA (-0.5% y/y, -2.1% miss vs. cons) partially offset by stronger Greater China vs. consensus (9% beat vs. cons).
- Stronger Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand Revenues (+22% y/y and 6% beat vs. cons) helped partially offset the modest miss in Cars and spare parts and Other.Adj. EBITDA of €709mn beat vs cons of €698mn and MSe of €671mn.
- EBITDA margin 1ppt higher vs. cons, at 39.7% vs. cons of 38.6%, driven by richer country and product mix as well as increased personalizations, partially offset by higher SG&A reflecting racing expenses and brand investments.
- EPS of €2.38 came in ahead of cons of €2.20 and MSe of €2.34.
- Industrial FCF of €232mn missed vs. cons of €276 and MSe of €236mn, driven by negative working capital mainly due to inventory increase driven by production planning, capex spending focused on product and infrastructure development, and dividend distribution of ~€536M.
FY25 guidance reiterated with increased confidence.
- Revenue >€7,000mn vs. cons of €7,158mn and MSe of €7,118mnAdj. EBITDA >/= €2,680mn vs. cons of €2,754mn and MSe of €2,662mnAdj EPS >/= €8.60 vs. cons of €8.88 and MSe of €8.74
Ferrari is hosting its Capital Markets Day on October 9, 2025 in Maranello. We look forward to updates on medium-term guidance (such as powertrain mix and BEV/product unveiling) and long-term company strategy.
Stock reaction: Modestly lower.
2Q’s beat on strong product and country mix / personalizations plus Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand revenues and the reiterated 2025 guide likely leaves consensus relatively unchanged. The implied FY EBITDA margin of 38.3%, flat vs. 2024, suggests rising costs (electric, supply chain) on a high personalization/pricing comp. That being said, investors may look to the removal of 50bps risk to EBIT and EBITDA margin guide as the company saw “No significant impact from the introduction of new import tariffs on EU cars into the US in the quarter.”
We continue to view Ferrari as a uniquely positioned, defensive business (order book extending well into 2026) that can achieve HSD% top line growth and DD% profit growth with relatively low volatility to earnings, supporting our OW rating.
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